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Terror, Terrain, and Turnout: Explaining the 2002 Midterm Elections
Gary C. Jacobson argues that the results of the 2002 congressional election were consistent with past midterm elections as referenda on the administration and the economy, although the terrorist attacks of September 11 profoundly affected the referendum's substance. The modest Republican victory was a consequence of the post- September 11 rally in support for President George W. Bush, redistricting (in the House), and higher turnout among Republican loyalists. There was no evidence of any national shift in public sentiment toward the Republican party.

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The 2022 Elections: A Test of Democracy’s Resilience and the Referendum Theory of Midterms, Gary C. Jacobson

The Presidential and Congressional Elections of 2020: A National Referendum on the Trump Presidency, Gary C. Jacobson

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ROBERT Y. SHAPIRO

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