Terror, Terrain, and Turnout: Explaining the 2002 Midterm Elections
Gary C. Jacobson argues that the results of the 2002 congressional election were consistent with past midterm elections as referenda on the administration and the economy, although the terrorist attacks of September 11 profoundly affected the referendum's substance. The modest Republican victory was a consequence of the post- September 11 rally in support for President George W. Bush, redistricting (in the House), and higher turnout among Republican loyalists. There was no evidence of any national shift in public sentiment toward the Republican party.
Extreme Referendum: Donald Trump and the 2018 Midterm Elections, Gary C. Jacobson
Obama and Nationalized Electoral Politics in the 2014 Midterm , Gary C. Jacobson
The Republican Resurgence in 2010, Gary C. Jacobsonmore by this author
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PRESIDENTIAL SELECTION AND DEMOCRACY
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