Volume 134 - Number 2 - Summer 2019
Forecasting Models and the Presidential Vote Kenneth A. Wink compares and contrasts a number of U.S. presidential election forecasting models and finds that some perform better than others. He argues that some systematic factors have an impact in every election regardless of the characteristics of the candidates, the effectiveness of the campaigns, and the events that occur in a particular election year.
Volume 134 - Number 1 - Spring 2019
The Enduring Constraints on Iran’s Power after the Nuclear Deal Thomas Juneau assesses the 2016 nuclear deal with Iran. He argues that critics of this deal incorrectly argued that it enhanced Iran’s position in the Middle East. He concludes that even under the deal Iran’s ability to gain power and to exert regional influence remained constrained.
Volume 133 - Number 3 - Fall 2018
The Puzzle of Democratic Divergence in the Arab World: Theory Confronts Experience in Egypt and Tunisia EVA BELLIN explores the divergent political trajectories pursued by Egypt and Tunisia after the Arab Spring. She argues that factors such as socio-economic development, mass culture, and prior regime character were less consequential in shaping the chances of democratic transition than were factors such as civil society, the character of the military, and leadership.
Volume 132 - Number 4 - Winter 2017–18
The Case of the Pivot to Asia: System Effects and the Origins of Strategy NICHOLAS D. ANDERSON and Victor D. Cha discuss the origins of the pivot to Asia, the Obama administration’s strategy in the Asia-Pacific. They argue that the pivot was neither a failure, as its critics suggest, nor a success, as its supporters claim. For the authors the pivot was a midcourse adjustment to a weak and flawed early Obama Asia policy.
Volume 132 - Number 3 - Fall 2017
Chinese Thinking on the South China Sea and the Future of Regional Security
Volume 132 - Number 2 - Summer 2017
China Engages the World, Warily: A Review Essay Andrew Scobell reviews John W. Garver’s history of China’s foreign relations since 1949. He finds China’s Quest to be an insightful and illuminating guide to the foreign policy of the People’s Republic of China.
Volume 132 - Number 1 - Spring 2017
Israeli Perceptions of the Iranian Nuclear Threat Gil Merom analyzes the multiple levels of what he characterizes as an Israeli “alarmist” perception of the Iranian nuclear threat. He argues that Iran’s nuclear military program would be less of a threat than argued by the Netanyahu government and that it would not merit an Israeli strategic change, be it formally exposing Israel’s nuclear capabilities or striking Iran preventively.
Volume 131 - Number 4 - Winter 2016–17
The Future of Transboundary Water Conflicts Miroslav Nincic and MATTHEW WEISS argue that con?ict over access to fresh water could threaten the future of international security. They examine conditions under which such con?ict may arise in the Middle East and South Asia. The authors identify countries most at risk for water-related con?ict and propose policy recommendations to mitigate for these risks.
Volume 131 - Number 3 - Fall 2016
The Impact of Voter Fraud Claims on Voter Registration Reform Legislation MARGARET GROARKE examines the impact that claims of voter fraud has had on three cases of voter registration reforms in the United States. She argues that the opposition that these legislative efforts faced is best understood as a partisan strategy to redistribute the electorate.
Volume 131 - Number 3 - Fall 2016
Democracy, Elite Bias, and Redistribution in Latin America VICTOR MENALDO discusses the effects of democracy on redistribution in Latin America. He challenges the view that democratization has been a credible commitment to redistribution in the region. He argues that redistribution is unlikely if authoritarian elites can manipulate the rules of the democratic game.
