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pp. 33-57
The 2004 Presidential Election: The Emergence of a Permanent Majority?
PAUL R. ABRAMSON, JOHN H. ALDRICH, and DAVID W. ROHDE
examine the election results, the appeals of the candidates, the exit poll conducted
by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International, and a series of
polls conducted by Knowledge Networks over the course of the 2004 election
year to evaluate the reasons that George W. Bush was reelected. They conclude
that the vote decisions were based largely upon retrospective evaluations in
which Bush was perceived by a narrow margin to have been a successful
president as well as a leader who would be successful in combating terrorism.
They argue that pundits may have exaggerated the role of social divisions in
the election. Analyses of candidate appeals and of the concerns of the electorate
show that the candidates made few appeals to values and that only a small
proportion of the public said that social issues would be the most important
factor in determining their vote.
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